Bundesnetzagentur approves scenario framework for Network Development Plan 2025
Year of issue 2014
Date of issue 2014.12.19
The Bundesnetzagentur today approved the scenario framework for the Network Development Plan 2025. The scenario framework describes the probable development of electricity generating capacity and consumption and forms the basis for determining the grid expansion requirements up to 2025.
"The scenario framework takes account of the reform of the Renewable Energy Sources Act as well as the federal government's ambitious climate change goals", said Jochen Homann, Bundesnetzagentur President.
Today's approval of the scenario framework is a continuation of the regular process to determine expansion requirements for the forthcoming years. Unlike in previous years, the new scenario framework presents a total of six instead of four scenarios. Four of the scenarios set out the possible development of electricity generating capacity and consumption up to 2025 while the other two cover the period up to 2035. All six take account of the new framework conditions created by the reform of the Renewable Energy Sources Act in 2014.
As well as greater differentiation through the additional scenarios, the scenarion framework includes three new important elements:
Firstly, no account is to be taken when determining the grid expansion requirements of the infrequent peaks in generation from onshore photovoltaic and wind installations. This is an effective way to limit the required expansion of the transmission system to an economically reasonable level. It also represents the Bundesnetzagentur's response to key calls from numerous associations and market players commenting on the scenario framework.
Secondly, use of Germany's pool of power plants is to be modelled in three of the scenarios so as to meet the federal government's goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This involves limiting carbon dioxide emissions from the power plant pool in the model calculations to a maximum of 187m tonnes for 2025 and 134m tonnes for 2035. All six scenarios assume a decrease in the installed capacity of brown and hard coal power. Germany is expected to depend on imports for several hours each year to ensure the security of electricity supply.
Thirdly, the Bundesnetzagentur has specifically included one scenario designed to meet all the federal government's prime energy policy goals, including the efficiency gain targets for the electricity sector.
Approval of the scenario framework follows a public consultation and workshop. The approval document has been published on the Bundesnetzagentur's website at http://www.netzausbau.de/sr4.