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Demand in the rail market developed in opposite directions in 2023. In local and long-distance passenger transport, the introduction of the Deutschlandticket was one of the main reasons for an increase in transport performance. At around 59 billion passenger-kilometres in regional passenger transport and just under 48 billion passenger-kilometres in long-distance passenger transport, both transport services exceeded the level of the 2019 reporting year for the first time.

Freight transport suffered losses due to a decline in demand caused by the challenging economic situation, increasing cost pressure and lack of infrastructure capacity. At 134 billion tonne-kilometres, transport performance fell back below the pre-pandemic level.

In contrast, revenue rose again across all transport services which is- apart from the increase in volume - a result of inflation and higher prices.

The non-federally owned rail transport companies outperformed the overall market in all three transport services and were able to slightly increase their market share.

These are the findings of the Railways 2024 market survey, in which, as in previous years, the Federal Network Agency publishes the results and analyses from the market survey conducted for the 2023 reporting year.

Railway Market Analysis Germany 2024 (PDF / 9 MB)

Short survey for the year under review 2023

Competition in the railway market saw positive development in the 2023 reporting year. Non-federally owned railway undertakings were able to gain market share in terms of transport performance in all rail transport services. With a three percentage point increase in regional and local rail passenger transport, non-federally owned railway undertakings now account for significantly more than one third of the market. In rail freight transport an increase of two percentage points allowed non-federally owned freight railways to breach the 60% threshold and reach a market share of 61% in 2023. In long-distance rail passenger transport, the non-federally owned railway undertakings accounted for a market share of 5%.

The introduction of the Germany Ticket in May 2023 caused demand to increase by a little over one third. The rise in demand was particularly pronounced for long-distance regional express lines and tourist connections. At 59bn passenger-kilometres, transport performance in regional and local rail passenger transport exceeded its 2019 level. Transport performance in long-distance rail passenger transport saw its highest ever level at 47bn passenger-kilometres.

Transport performance in rail freight transport fell to 127bn tonne-kilometres. A general economic downturn and the associated reduction in production activity resulted in lower demand for transport. In addition, rising energy prices, staff shortages and the large number of construction sites in the network all posed challenges for freight railways.

Railway Market Analysis Germany 2024 (Short survey for the reporting year 2023) (pdf / 875 KB)

Especially in the winter months, rail passenger service in 2021 was characterised by sharp declines in demand as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Demand was at levels only around one furth to one third of pre-pandemic levels. Rail freight transport was no longer affected by the pandemic in 2021 and the number of tonne-kilometres increased by more than 13 percent.

These are the findings of the Railway Market Analysis 2022, which is now available as a download below. As in previous years, the Bundesnetzagentur has published its findings and analyses from the market survey carried out for the 2021 reporting year in its report entitled "Railway Market Analysis 2022".

Railway undertakings under public service obligation were bolstered by the government's rescue package for local public transport. Track access charge assistance improved the economic situation for railway undertakings in rail freight transport and long-distance passenger rail transport. In spite of the financial assistance, the overall market had a negative net income in 2021.

Railway Market Analysis Germany 2022 (pdf / 3 MB)

The Bundesnetzagentur analysed the development of the German railway market in 2020 under conditions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Transport performance fell by up to 75 percent transport performance decreased by around 5 percent, with a particularly slow second quarter. Freight transport in the second half of 2020 remained stable. As was the case with regional passenger rail services, rail freight transport through non-federally owned providers gained market share.

Lower utilisation of train capacities and of the railway network helped to significantly improve punctuality in rail transport.

Railway undertakings incurred costs of around €100m for health or cleaning measures related to the pandemic for protecting employees and customers. With a focus on local public transport, a state rescue package was put in place that, among other things, compensated the local public transport railway undertakings for lost revenue. The railway undertakings are nevertheless suffer-ing heavy losses caused by the pandemic.

Furthermore, the special report includes analyses taken by IRG-Rail to show the effects of the pandemic on a European level.

Special edition of the Railway Market Analysis 2021- Market developments under conditions caused by the Covid-19-pandemic (pdf / 2 MB)

In the rail freight segment, the competitors to Deutsche Bahn now operate more than fifty percent of the traffic volume of the market. They increased their market shares in transport services from 47 percent in 2017 to the current 51 percent in the year 2018. In the long-distance passenger rail transport, Flixtrain entered the German rail market. Additionally, ÖBB, which took over the night trains from the DB AG, is another new competitor in the long-distance rail passenger segment.

Both in rail freight and the long-distance passenger rail transport, an increase in the traffic volumes in net-tonne-kilometres and passenger-kilometres can be observed. The volume of train-kilometres provided on public train paths increased from 1.104 billion in 2017 to 1.115 billion in the year 2018.

The above-mentioned findings are outcomes of the market survey carried out during 2019 for the reporting year 2018. The Bundesnetzagentur has published its analyses from the market survey in its report entitled Railway Market Analysis 2019, which is available for download.

The railway market survey is carried out annually by the Bundesnetzagentur as required by the statutory provisions of the Rail Regulation Act (ERegG). The Act puts an obligation on all market players to participate in the Bundesnetzagentur's market survey, which eventually might be enforced by imposing administrative fines.

Railway Market Analysis 2019 (PDF / 6 MB)

Growing revenues were observed among railway undertakings and infrastructure managers in 2016. The revenues generated by railway undertakings rose to €20.1 billion; this figure was €6.3 billion for infrastructure managers. These are some of the many findings from the Railway Mar-ket Analysis 2017 which can be downloaded below. As in the previous year, the Bundesnet-zagentur published the results and analyses from its 2016 market survey in the Railway Market Analysis 2017.

The competitors in the rail freight segment grew their share of the market for transport services from 41 percent in 2015 to 46 percent in 2016. The share held by competitors in the short-distance passenger rail transport segment also increased, from 22 percent to 26 percent. By contrast, the share held by competitors in the long-distance passenger rail transport segment continued to be less than one percent. Operating performance on public train paths rose once again, from 1.078 billion train-path kilometres in 2015 to 1.098 billion train-path kilometres in 2016.

The 2017 market survey conducted by the Bundesnetzagentur in the railway sector marks the first time that this survey was carried out on the basis of the provisions of the Rail Regulation Act. Under this law, all market participants are obligated to take part in the Bundesnetzagentur's market survey. This obligation can also be enforced. Due to the market participants’ obligation to provide information to the Bundesnetzagentur, a greater number of enterprises took part in the market survey during the 2016 reporting period than in previous years.

Market Analyses Railway 2017 (PDF / 10 MB)

It was a mixed year for the railway industry in 2014: Revenues of companies in the railways market rose moderately to a new record level of €19bn. However, growth in transport services was only reported in rail freight traffic. As regards the passenger rail service, there was a decline in traffic volume. This is the conclusion of the Railway Market Analysis 2015, which is now available as a download on the Bundesnetzagentur's web site. The same as last year, the Bundesnetzagentur has published the "Railway Market Analysis 2015" with findings and analyses taken from the market survey it carried out in 2014. The latest analysis shows that in 2014 most railway undertakings reported a positive operating result.

Revenues in the railway transport market as a whole increased by 1.6 percent. This increase was due to revenue growth in short-distance passenger rail transport and in rail freight traffic, in contrast, however, revenues from long-distance passenger rail transport remained steady. Infrastructure operators achieved total sales revenue in 2014 of €5.8bn from usage charges, up 3.6 percent.

Competitors to Deutsche Bahn companies for rail freight traffic were able to increase their market share in transport services from 33 percent in 2013 to 36 percent in 2014. While the competitors' share remained steady at 19 percent in short-distance passenger rail transport, in long-distance passenger rail transport it continued to fall significantly below one per cent. The operating performance on the public rail network rose from 1,056bn train path kilometres in 2013 to 1,064bn train path kilometres in 2014.

The charges due for the use of the railway infrastructure, which make up a significant portion of the total costs of a railway undertaking, increased once again in 2014. Overall, the rail freight traffic companies had to pay about 17 percent of their revenue, the long-distance passenger rail transport companies about 24 percent of their revenue and the short-distance passenger rail transport companies about 38 percent of their revenue in infrastructure charges.

Railways Market Analysis 2015 (PDF / 7 MB)

Having increased in the previous years, the market position of the German railway undertakings became stronger in 2012. Due to growing transport demand in the passenger transport segment, the railway undertakings’ revenues reached a new record level. This is the result that the Railway Market Analysis 2013 reached. This document can be downloaded on the Bundesnetzagentur’s website. In the “Railway Market Analysis 2013” report, the Bundesnetzagentur publishes results and analyses from the market survey which was carried out in 2013.

Railway Market Analysis 2013 (pdf / 604 KB)

The cost of capital must be determined when reviewing rail sector charges since it is part of an infrastructure manager's costs. The relevant standardisation is set out in Annex 4 para 5 and in section 32(1) in conjunction with section 1(9) of the Rail Regulation Act.

In 2009 the Bundesnetzagentur first commissioned an advisory report to work out a consistent approach to determining the cost of capital in the railway infrastructure sector.

This report was updated in 2013 and 2016 and partially updated annually from 2019 to 2021 (these reports were only updates of the beta values and the borrowing cost surcharges). In 2021 the Bundesnetzagentur also published a methods report, which reviewed the capital market model used, the approach to determining the market risk premium and the method for determining interest rates on borrowings. This report addresses the results of the methods report and sets parameter ranges for determining rates of equity return and interest rates on borrowings.

2022 outline estimating cost of capital railway infrastructur sector (pdf / 526 KB)