Bundesnetzagentur approves 2021-2035 electricity scenario framework

The Bundesnetzagentur today approved the scenario framework for the electricity network development plan 2021-2035. This approval provides the basis for determining the demand for transmission system expansion until 2035.

"The scenario framework is the starting signal for the next network development plan. We are focusing in particular on the phase-out of coal. While another topic is sector coupling, for example electricity as a heat carrier in industry, power-to-hydrogen and electric vehicles," explained Jochen Homann, Bundesnetzagentur President. "The planning of the electricity grid always takes the federal government’s current energy policy goals into consideration. The TSOs are now called upon to work to identify and propose concrete plans for network expansion on the basis of these new assumptions."

Phase-out of coal

The Coal Phase-out Act provides for shutting down coal-fired electricity generation by 2038. In the scenario framework it is assumed in two scenarios that the phase-out of coal will be achieved by 2035 in order to avoid an influence of production of electricity from coal on the demand for network expansion. This assumption does not replace the analysis provided for in the Act for security of supply reasons as to whether coal-fired electricity generation can in fact be fully phased out in 2035. It does, however, ensure that the transmission system can manage the phase-out of coal. 

Increasing sector coupling through the National Hydrogen Strategy

The degree of innovation in the scenarios varies as sector coupling increases. Sector coupling integrates the areas of electricity, mobility, heating and gas, as well as industrial applications (eg in chemicals or steel production). It facilitates decarbonisation as far as possible by using renewable energy as a substitute for fossil energy sources not just in the electricity sector but going beyond this by acting as a substitute in other CO2 producing sectors. Overall this leads to a rise in electricity consumption despite taking account of significant increases in efficiency.

The electricity scenario framework reflects the federal government’s goals to establish up to 5 GW of electrolysis capacity in Germany by 2030 and another 5 GW by no later than 2040. New large consumers that have arisen out of digitisation or decarbonisation have also been taken into account.

Reduction of demand for network expansion through network alignment

The Bundesnetzagentur welcomes the proposal from the TSOs to combine further work on the energy transition with optimising the network in line with user behaviour. Network alignment means both a network-aligned regionalisation of generators (eg wind turbine locations) or users (power-to-gas plants) as well as a network-aligned usage pattern (eg charging patterns of electric cars). If the introduction of a network alignment through respective guidelines is indeed successful, it will contribute to a reduced demand for network expansion like the renewed consideration of the innovative network operating resources. 

Electricity scenario framework as basis for the electricity network development plan 2021 – 2035

The TSOs presented the draft version of the electricity scenario framework to the Bundesnetzagentur on 10 January 2020 for examination and approval. Prior to the approval the Bundesnetzagentur consulted with the public for four weeks and discussed the draft in two workshops that were held in Nuremberg and Berlin. The Bundesnetzagentur has summarised the results of the consultation in a separate document.

The TSOs have until the end of the year to create a first draft of the electricity network development plan based on the electricity scenario framework that was approved today. The consulted second draft is to be submitted to the Bundesnetzagentur by 26 April 2021.

The approval of the electricity scenario framework is available on the Bundesnetzagentur’s website at www.netzausbau.de/2021-2035-sr.

Press release (pdf / 235 KB)